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TRENDS is a software application which can be used to make projections of the vehicle stock development up to the year 2030. The stock is projected on the basis of statistical information and basic economy and population growth scenarios. This information can then be used to estimate the evolution of emissions into the future.


The basic methodology of TRENDS has been inherited from the ForeMove algorithm, which has been developed to estimate the survival probability of vehicles as a function of their age. TRENDS offers dynamic modelling of the vehicle stock size, age and technology distribution, as well as new registrations and scrappage rates. A basic assumption on the stock saturation level is necessary to make a projection on the basis of current demographics. A simpler approach is used to simulate projections from non-road transport modes.This procedure provides consistent activity data and projects emissions for all EU15 countries up to 2020. TRENDS has evolved into a software tool which may be used by European authorities to estimate scenario impacts and technology measures in their policy-making activities.

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