SECTION I: ESTIMATION OF COSTS
| 1 | Taking into account the rest of the cost evaluation please provide an overall estimation of the total costs for full deployment/production of the R & D result. |
| … in terms of IPR protection | |
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| …in terms of product development | |
| According to preliminary estimates, the total cost of the R&D phase would be about 20 MUSD, with a time scale of 4 years. The estimated preliminary capital cost of the 20 MW net output power pilot plant is about 33 MUSD. The whole budget of the project is about 52 MUSD/6 years
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| …in terms of mass production | |
| The 20 MUSD invested into R&D would have a short payback period from the cash flow of the 20 MW pilot plant mentioned above. For example, the compulsory purchase price („KÁT“) of electric power produced from wind energy in Hungary is 26.46 Ft/kWh = 0.132 USD/kWh. The pay off time of the capital invested into R&D with such an electricity price is 15 months. The estimated capital costs of mass production is about 33 MUSD / 20 MW net power.
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| … in terms of marketing | |
| 2 | Based on the above assessment as well as the marketing information please provide the correct estimation of the price for R&D product in correlation with costs | |||||
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | ||
| Fixed costs | 53 000 000 | |||||
| Personnel | 1 000 000 | 1 000 000 | 1 000 000 | 1 000 000 | 1 000 000 | |
| Other running costs | 9 965 960 | 9 737 864 | 9 737 864 | 9 737 864 | 9 737 864 | |
| Marketing costs | 500 000 | 500 000 | 500 000 | 500 000 | 500 000 | |
| TOTAL EXPECTED COSTS | 64 465 960 | 11 237 864 | 11 237 864 | 11 237 864 | 11 237 864 | |
| Price per Unit | 0,132 | 0,132 | 0,132 | 0,132 | 0,132 | |
| Type of Unit | ||||||
| Number of Units | 172 800 000 | 172 800 000 | 172 800 000 | 172 800 000 | 172 800 000 | |
| TOTAL Expected Revenues | 22 809 600 | 22 809 600 | 22 809 600 | 22 809 600 | 22 809 600 | |
| CASH FLOW REQUIRED (REVENUES-COSTS) | -41 656 360 | 11 571 736 | 11 571 736 | 11 571 736 | 11 571 736 | |
| TOTAL CAPITAL required for five years | 53 MEUR peak and it comes back from the first year. | |||||
SECTION 2: QUALITATIVE FACTORS
| 3 | Dimension of identified target groups |
| Renewable energy is a lucrative business around the world. Numerous bodies, research institutes, government institutions and private organizations make assessments and forecasts concerning the future and profitability of this industry. Different people interpret the results and failures differently. The available data shows great discrepancy depending on the source, and the evaluations are even more contradictory. In some cases, no agreement could be reached even on what is considered a failure or a success.
But something is sure, namely that all the participants of the energy branch can be interested in this business. The only problem is to predict who is interested in the success of our technology, and who are against it.
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| 4 | Evaluation of financial Risks for R&D result |
| Though the aims to be realized are based on well known technical solutions, and most of them can be planned based on current methods, it is a novelty, as stated by the International Search Report of the WIPO (World International Property Organization). This means that until now, nobody has built such a device and the related ground station and nobody has accomplish what we are going to do.
This fact contains an inherent risk of the “unknown”. The essence of this risk is that we would have to calculate with possibilities which cannot be foreseen. The aim of the experiment is exactly to provoke the problem, and find out how to solve it. In such cases, the experimental work is one of the means of managing these risks. Other elements of the risk management are that we are going to win renowned experts to contribute to the project either participating the R&D work or as an adviser. (E.g. in topic of flight in the jet stream) Other R&D tasks (e.g. development of high power to weight ratio motor-generators) are engineering-type works, which result can be planned or estimated with good certainty. In this case the “risk” is, that the result is underestimated, in case of finding an original solution of the problem. Summarized, I think, the R&D costs contain also the risks. |
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SECTION 3: IDENTIFICATION OF FINANCING SOURCES
After evaluating all the above mentioned criteria, please tick the best financing source for the achievement of R&D result (i.e. own capitals, banking credits, venture capital, business angels, etc)
| 1. European Funding
Define relevance of the product with the following potential funding sources and comment |
| 1. …
2. … 3. … 4. … |
| 2. National Funding |
| 1. …
2. … 3. … … |
| 3. Private funding |
| 1. … venture capital
2. … 3. … … |
| 4. Other |
SECTION 3: FINAL EVALUATION
| It is requested a final evaluation considering the funding opportunities you believe most suitable for the exploitation of the R&D result, considering the possibility of the creation of a spin-off, further research, in particular, a cost/benefit analysis and a financial projection for the R&D result, type of collaboration identified (i.e. Licensing Agreement, Technical Cooperation, Joint Venture, Manufacturing Agreement, Commercial Agreement with Technical Assistance, Creation of a spin-off, Joint further development)… |
| I think, the project needs developments which are in the mainstream of the scientific efforts of several trades, e.g. wind energetics, high power energy storage, UAV-flight, regulation of surface power grid, peak power production, meteorology, electric rotating machines, etc. As a strategy can be applied, that we integrate the best results worldwide, by ensuring a huge new field of application of these results. It is a win-win play, all the participants are winners.
There are also tasks, which can be solved by contract research, initiated by us. Finally, the organization of the work, splitting this multidisciplinary project in treatable parts and subsequent synthesis of all the results needs a small central team, containing a small staff of administrative, financial and technical experts, with participating of the inventor. This team would have the aim to find the best operational form for the partial tasks.
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Decision of evaluation (Please keep only the appropriate)
- The R&D needs moderate revision
Tivadar Lippényi
